Neue Studie von Prof. Dr. Heinz Zimmermann und Prof. Dr. Yvonne Seiler Zimmermann
Das SECO veröffentlicht eine Studie von Heinz Zimmermann und Yvonne Seiler Zimmermann zu den Besitzverhältnissen am schweizerischen Aktienmarkt (Strutkurberichterstattung Nr. 59):
Sie bildet eine Grundlage für die Beantwortung verschiedener parlamentarischer Vorstösse zum Thema Grenzüberschreitende Investitionen und Investitionskontrollen durch den Bundesrat.
This paper takes an innovative look at the relationship between commod-ity futures prices and speculation. Contrary to other studies, we analyze the effect of speculation on temporary and permanent futures price shocks estimated from a cointegrated system of pairwise short- and long-dated contracts. Where cointegration is found, the long-term equilibrium is determined by the long-dated contract, while the adjustment toward equilibrium is restored by the short-dated contract (except for cotton). Granger causality tests cannot reject the null hypothesis that speculation as measured by Working’s T index has no effect on squared permanent price shocks for 7 out of 9 commodities. Where the null hypothesis is rejected, the relationship exhibits a negative sign, i.e., speculation has a stabilizing effect.
This paper analyzes the structure and pricing of liquidity risk for international listed buyout funds. We use a time-series framework for our tests which allows us to discriminate between the exposure of buyout funds to two types of liquidity: Market and funding liquidity. We find that the innovation in funding liquidity is a priced factor for buyout funds, while changes in market liquidity are not. Investors require a risk premium of approximately 3% to 7% per annum in order to be compensated for bearing that risk. Controlling for funding liquidity risk decreases the alpha of the asset class to zero.
An option’s market price reflects the risk-neutral probability that it will end up in the money. Research has been increasing in recent years that shows how, given a set of market prices for options covering a range of strikes, an estimate of the entire risk-neutral probability distribution can be obtained. The technique is based on the fact that the second partial derivative of the option pricing function with respect to the strike price is the risk-neutral density (discounted from option expiration). This idea is generally attributed to Breeden and Litzenberger’s 1978 paper. In this article, Zimmermann shows that the connection between the second partial derivative of the option price with respect to the exercise price and risk-neutral probabilities has a much longer history, including a little-known 1974 note by Fischer Black, and going all the way back to Bachelier in 1900.