Kollegienhaus, University of Basel
CIEB & Innoscape
Trade with China: The Likelihood and Consequences of Decoupling
Has globalization peaked? Will economic and geopolitical tensions lead us to a new era of disintegration and deglobalization, led by a decoupling of the U.S. and Chinese economies, or perhaps even a polarization of the world economy into separate economic hubs comprising the United States and its Western allies and China, Russia, and their satellites?
This event will consider the extent to which deglobalization has already begun in response to the “Trump tariffs” and the ensuing U.S.-China trade war. It will evaluate the likelihood of further decoupling in the light of the political and economic forces at play and review recent economic studies that estimate the effects using state-of-the-art quantitative trade models. Disintegration would be costly for all parties, especially if it involves significant technological decoupling.
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